BIA/Kelsey Forecasts Local Advertising Revenues Through 2014

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Chantilly, VA - Feb 22, 2010 - In its U.S. Local Media Annual Forecast (2009-2014), BIA/Kelsey forecasts the U.S. local advertising market to reach $144.9 billion in 2014, representing a modest compound annual growth rate of 2.2 percent from 2009. Following a significant contraction in 2009, a closer look at the forecast period reveals local media spending is expected to be slow through 2011, with meaningful recovery beginning in 2012.

BIA/Kelsey forecasts spending on traditional media to decline from $115 billion in 2009 to $108.2 billion in 2014 (CAGR of -1.2 percent). During the same period, spending on online/interactive media is projected to grow from $15.2 billion to $36.7 billion (CAGR of 19.3 percent).

BIA/Kelsey reports among the key drivers of this year's forecast are:

  • Larger than previously forecast declines in newspapers and direct mail
  • Slowing growth of the interactive/online sector, including search, display and classifieds
  • A further ramp-up in political advertising due to the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision, which will benefit traditional television and radio sectors and the interactive and direct mail sectors

    The forecast reveals 55 percent of all ad spending is with local media, defined in this forecast as spending by small and medium-sized businesses and national advertisers or regional advertisers making local buys. In 2009 total U.S. ad spending was $235.6 billion (based on BIA/Kelsey’s estimate of the local segment and estimates by several market forecasters focused on national spending). Of that, BIA/Kelsey estimates $130.2 billion was spent on local ad buys, with $105.4 billion attributed to national advertising.

    Total Local Ad Spend, Five-year Forecast
    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
    $156.3 $130.2 $128.9 $129.8 $134.1 $138.4 $144.9
    dollars in billions

    BIA/Kelsey's Annual U.S. Local Media Forecast draws from proprietary data; company, industry and country information in the public domain; and discussions with clients and non-clients about the direction and pace of development in the local media marketplace.

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