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BIA/Kelsey Forecasts Local Advertising Revenues Through 2014
Chantilly, VA - Feb 22, 2010 - In its U.S. Local Media Annual Forecast (2009-2014), BIA/Kelsey forecasts the U.S. local advertising market to reach $144.9 billion in 2014, representing a modest compound annual growth rate of 2.2 percent from 2009. Following a significant contraction in 2009, a closer look at the forecast period reveals local media spending is expected to be slow through 2011, with meaningful recovery beginning in 2012.
BIA/Kelsey forecasts spending on traditional media to decline from $115 billion in 2009 to $108.2 billion in 2014 (CAGR of -1.2 percent). During the same period, spending on online/interactive media is projected to grow from $15.2 billion to $36.7 billion (CAGR of 19.3 percent).
BIA/Kelsey reports among the key drivers of this year's forecast are:
The forecast reveals 55 percent of all ad spending is with local media, defined in this forecast as spending by small and medium-sized businesses and national advertisers or regional advertisers making local buys. In 2009 total U.S. ad spending was $235.6 billion (based on BIA/Kelsey’s estimate of the local segment and estimates by several market forecasters focused on national spending). Of that, BIA/Kelsey estimates $130.2 billion was spent on local ad buys, with $105.4 billion attributed to national advertising.
| Total Local Ad Spend, Five-year Forecast | ||||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| $156.3 | $130.2 | $128.9 | $129.8 | $134.1 | $138.4 | $144.9 |
| dollars in billions | ||||||
BIA/Kelsey's Annual U.S. Local Media Forecast draws from proprietary data; company, industry and country information in the public domain; and discussions with clients and non-clients about the direction and pace of development in the local media marketplace.
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